Forewarned is forearmed: Why philanthropy should act before a crisis unfolds

As climate-related disasters become more frequent and humanitarian resources scarcer, philanthropy faces a choice: wait until a crisis is fully visible before acting, or use what we already know to act earlier, reduce suffering and make limited humanitarian funds go further.

Too often, funding arrives when lives and livelihoods have already been lost and families are forced to flee to safer ground and start from zero – or in debt. Yet many climate-related crises are no longer complete surprises. Forecasting has improved dramatically; we know which climate risks are most likely at which time of year, which communities are most exposed, and increasingly how best to work with them to prepare.

Why wait for certainty, public attention and visible suffering before releasing funding, when by then, the most valuable window for action may already have closed?

The question is no longer whether we can anticipate some crises, but whether we are prepared to act on that knowledge. For philanthropy, this requires a shift in mindset. We must progress from responding primarily to needs that are already visible and measurable. By then, roads are already impassable, prices have gone up, herds decline and, ultimately, families need years to rebuild.

Acting early protects lives and livelihoods. It allows communities to move livestock, purchase food and essential supplies in advance, and strengthen homes and infrastructure. It also allows humanitarian organisations to move before markets, transport routes and basic services are disrupted.

Importantly, anticipatory action is not simply about spending money earlier. It is about preparing earlier.

As forecasting capabilities improve, the case for preparing before crisis hits becomes stronger. Anticipatory action is effective and efficient, but it is also closely aligned with our commitment to localisation: it enables decisions and resources to move closer to the communities that understand the risks and know what action is needed. It is also more cost-effective. Start Network estimates that every dollar invested in anticipatory action returns $2 to $7, through reduced response costs and avoided losses.

In Bangladesh, local communities used anticipatory action funds released by Start Network ahead of Cyclone Remal in May 2024, to reinforce weak embankments before the storm made landfall. While cyclones provide limited warning time, thanks to strong community action and preparedness, reinforcements could be completed some 10 hours before the cyclone hit. The intervention cost less than $1,000 yet helped protect hundreds of homes and livelihoods.

In Somalia, during the 2023 El Niño floods, the Danish Refugee Council used flood forecasts and river-level monitoring to release support before floodwaters peaked. Assistance and early warnings reached more than 800 households four days before the Shabelle River overflowed. With this support and information, over 90% of the population had relocated to safe evacuation areas before the worst impacts occurred.

These examples illustrate something important: anticipatory action is not about predicting every consequence perfectly. It is about giving communities the opportunity to act before their choices become severely limited.

This is particularly important today. Humanitarian needs continue to rise while funding is under enormous pressure. The global humanitarian system cannot close that gap simply by becoming more efficient, but efficiency does matter when resources are scarce.

That is one reason anticipatory action is receiving more attention from the IKEA Foundation. We recently approved €15.7 million to support three partners – Start Network, the Danish Refugee Council and GiveDirectly – to prepare communities for the impacts of the upcoming super El Niño. We do not know exactly how events will unfold and where the impacts will hit hardest. Even with the best predictions, no one does, but we know enough to justify preparedness and early action. We have trusted relationships with partners that have deep local insight, strong relationships and the operational capacity to move quickly in uncertain conditions. This keeps decisions grounded in evidence and proximity rather than visibility or headlines.

This does not mean we are replacing crisis response or recovery. When disasters strike, people still need immediate humanitarian assistance and long-term support to rebuild their lives. Anticipatory action is not an alternative, but it’s increasingly important to make crisis response more effective, more humane and, if we get it right, less necessary.

We hope more funders will embrace this approach. Not because every crisis can be predicted, but because so many can, and because together we can help communities avoid some of the worst consequences.

As climate shocks become more frequent, responding after disaster strikes will not be enough. We need approaches that reduce risk, protect progress and support communities before situations deteriorate.

The question is not whether we can anticipate crises. Increasingly, we can.

The question is whether we are prepared to act.

Sources

• Start Network, Untapped Potential: Anticipatory Action in a System Under Pressure (2025)
• Danish Refugee Council, El Niño 2026-27: Acting Now Before Climate Shocks Become Displacement Emergencies (2026)