Agriculture and food systems: The new frontier for (climate) philanthropy

As EU agricultural ministers increasingly emphasise the need for  risk-reduction strategies, a window is opening to address both the vulnerabilities and negative impacts embedded in today’s food system. Growing geopolitical instability could become a turning point for transformation. But the direction of change remains uncertain: this moment could either accelerate a just transition or deepen dependence on fossil-fuel-intensive agriculture, increasing systemic risk.

The shockwaves from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – initially seen as an energy crisis – have long reached agriculture and food. We now know how dependent our food system is on fossil fuel inputs, how central the Gulf Region is for food trade and how strong the implications for food affordability and security are.

Experiences from pervious crisis and early signals suggest the narrative around the latter is threatening to gain ground. The fertilizer industry has increasingly framed itself as indispensable to food security and agricultural resilience, even as the sector continues to profit from crisis-driven market volatility and we are clearly overconsuming fertilisers in Europe. Investigations reveal that parts of the industry tripled profits following Russia’s war in Ukraine and have generated tens of millions of dollars in additional share sales since the Hormuz crisis, while farmers struggle to cope with steep increases in input costs.

Fossil fuel dependency in food systems extends beyond fertilizers to mechanisation, energy-intensive processing and global distribution systems. Taken together, food systems account for roughly one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. There can be no meaningful decarbonisation – or reduction of systemic risks linked to fossil fuel dependency – without transforming food systems.

Cost and vulnerabilities

This production model comes with significant costs. Overuse of synthetic fertilizers – especially in the global north – drives climate change, degrades ecosystems and pollutes water, leading to environmental, health and social burdens, the cost of which is not incorporated in market prices and largely borne by the public.

The consequences extend beyond this. As soils lose productive capacity, maintaining yields becomes increasingly dependent on external inputs – reinforcing reliance on the very products that contributed to degradation in the first place and driving deforestation in search of new arable land. At the same time, degraded ecosystems lose their buffering capacity, making agricultural production more vulnerable to climate shocks. This is not a problem of the future. Climate-related impacts already cost the European Union’s agricultural sector more than €28 billion annually with projections indicating substantial increases in crop losses. Food system risks are cumulative and interconnected: fossil fuel dependence, concentrated markets, fragile supply chains, biodiversity loss, labour shortages, animal disease outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance reinforce one another, reducing the system’s capacity to absorb shocks.

Agriculture and food as strategic asset

All these risks, combined with growing climate and geopolitical instability, place food at the core of economic stability and ultimately national security. These risks cannot be managed reactively, addressed only as they become visible. At the heart of this lies a fundamental question: what kind of food and agricultural system does Europe want for the future and is Europe prepared to treat it as a genuine strategic priority?

The Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies under the European Green Deal (2020) sought to set a vision, but political commitment and delivery fell well short. Even the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture – hailed as the first-ever cross-food-chain effort to set a joined direction for the sector – did not land in concrete policy responses, and it is hard to see how European policymakers have since meaningfully integrated agrifood issues into their broader strategic frameworks, whether on competitiveness or clean industrialisation.

While Europe is sleepwalking through the crisis, China is on a different path. A recent analysis by Systemiq suggests China may apply to food systems the same industrial strategy it used to dominate solar energy and electric vehicles: long-term state coordination, supply-chain control, technological investment and strategic market positioning. This is not a model Europe should replicate, but it highlights a broader issue: Europe increasingly treats food as a political liability rather than a strategic sector. By now, it should be clear that reducing bureaucracy and deregulation are not substitutes for a long-term vision and the governance systems needed to deliver it.

From food security to resilience

Beyond being a key arena for climate mitigation and ecosystem protection, food and agriculture are central economic sectors sustaining employment, regional economies, rural communities and public health. A narrow focus on short-term productivity is insufficient to address the scale of pressures facing food systems.

Unlike energy systems, where decarbonisation is increasingly driven by scalable technologies, food systems do not have a single dominant transition pathway – but this is a strength, not a weakness. A wide range of solutions already exists – they need to be scaled: organic, regenerative and agroecological practices; reducing overconsumption of meat and dairy by reshaping the food environment; shortening and diversifying supply chains. Many deliver near term benefits alongside longer term structural change – from more efficient fertiliser use reducing pollution, to shifting the composition of processed foods with direct effects on price and health.

The transition is complex, but it is achievable and this sector is already facing profound change, making the case for directing that change intentionally all the more compelling. What is missing is not solutions but vision and coordinated action to scale what benefits people, economies and ecosystems alike.

Food systems sit at the intersection of climate stability, economic resilience, public health, biodiversity and democratic legitimacy. For philanthropy, this is not another sectoral problem to solve – this is a systemic transformation already underway – the question is whether philanthropy helps shape it.